EUR/AUD – Range trading defined!

Hello, fellows, for our today’s article I have decided to share some insight not on a major pair but the heavy volatile EUR/AUD cross. The pair provides strong trading opportunity and probably one of the best defined big-time frame ranges around the FX.

From a technical point of view, the price is locked between the resistance at 1.5870 and the support at 1.3680. Moreover, there are strong patterns confirming that the bears are winning the fight and after hitting the upper range boundary a possible target in the next months will be the lower one.

Around the 1.5800/5900 levels, we spot very rapid depreciation of the single currency showed in a bearish price action monthly candle. Since the beginning of March, only for three days, we spot solid downfall confirming the downtrend. The price may find some support nearby the 1.4300 level but overall the target is 1.3670/13700 and with a stop loss above 1.5800 this opportunity provides 1 to 1.5 odds backed up with a solid technical signal on a big-time frame.


AUD/USD – the pair is likely to fall towards yearly lows!

As we expected the dollar continue to appreciate against other major currencies and for the beginning of the trading week we decided to provide a trading insight on one of the commodity pairs – the AUD/USD cross. The Australian dollar has been under a heavy fundamental pressure due to the low oil prices and this could be clearly seen on the daily chart.

Moreover, from a technical point of view, we spot a huge bearish engulfing pattern with several other technical structures that suggest the bear’s dominance. After the pair has confirmed a broken triangle pattern, the prices have moved in a corrective sideways wedge and we expect given the huge bearish candle that occurred last Friday we expect the down movement to continue.

In a mid-term perspective, my forecast is that the prices will head towards the prior lows at 0.6830 as the long-term bears will try to push for another low. The scenario could only change if we see a bullish move that extends above 0.7260. However, for now, there aren’t any technical signs that the bulls may trigger a rally.


USD/CAD – the rally is likely to be resumed!

Hello dear fellows, today I am going to provide you with a powerful trading insight on one of the USD majors – the USD/CAD pair. The analysis is on a weekly basis because its purpose is to define a possible long-term perspective for the pair.

Currently, what I spot is a strong bullish trend that has sharpened and accelerated after the prices rebounded from the 1.2000 support zone. Since then, the middle line of the Bollinger Bands Indicator is playing a role of a dynamic support zone and lately we spot that the pair has again rebounded from it.

From a technical perspective, the rebound is confirmed and in a mid-term perspective, the pair should move in a bullish fashion towards the prior highs located at 1.4700 as there are even chances for the bulls to rush towards the psychological zone around 1.5000. Even if we see the prices dropping below 1.3550, the overall up-trend pattern will be still in place as long as the second ascending support is active. However, if we see a drop below 1.3550, I would expect a test of the 1.3000 support zone. Only a break below 1.2800 would indicate a major trend reversal situation.


EUR/USD – bears are dominating the big picture!

Dear fellows, today I would like to provide you with a short article regarding the long-term perspective of the most traded currency pair – the EUR/USD cross. I have decided to provide an outlook based on a monthly basis chart. The reason behind my pick is very simple. The monthly chart incorporates all fundamental aspects for a particular pair purely by looking at its technical structure as it excludes the noise around some news releases.

We can easily spot that the pair has been in a rapid downtrend since it hit 1.4000 and the single currency found a media core support at 1.0470. A lot of people expected a strong rebound and 50% retrenchment up to 1.2400. However, this is not the case. What we see on the monthly chart is a tight range pattern locked between 1.0470 and 1.1725 which has already been confirmed as a major resistance zone.

Moreover, the price action is strongly supporting the bears as we spot on the monthly bars huge shadows pointing up. From a technical perspective, the range pattern is a trend continuation structure and the downtrend should be resumed if the prices break below 1.0450. The mid-term target is the level of parity which is very likely to be pushed as well opening the path towards the initial range pattern target – the support zone at 0.9500.


GBP/USD – strong bearish pressure amid June’s Referendum

Dear fellows, today I am going to provide you with an insight about one of the most traded currency pairs in the FX industry – GBP/USD – the cable. During the past weekend, the tension has been increased as the parliament of Cameron has been deciding about UK’s fate in the European Union. What came as a decision was a national referendum that is going to take place in June giving the British people the opportunity to choose whether their country is going to stay in the Union or leave it. Financially the decision would have a huge impact on the UK economy as well as the European one. However, until then there is plenty of time and let’s see what is the technical picture for the GBP/USD pair.

I will provide an analysis on a weekly time frame as this is where the fundamentals are best represented by the price action as well as the reliability of the technical structure is one of the highest.

On a weekly basis we spot a strong downtrend that has been already confirmed by a ross-hook pattern and after the last weekend, the bears solidified their dominance over the pair. Currently, the prices are located close to the 1.4100/1.4000 resistance but based on the strong downtrend pattern we expect this level to be easily pushed and the cable should continue to rapidly depreciate. The uncertainty of the fundamental situation is making it just worse and our expectations are that the value of the British currency will be depreciated towards the 2009 lows around 1.3500. Both fundamental and technical patterns suggest for a solid bearish pressure and until the prices hit 1.3500 we do not see any support zones that could trigger a buying interest especially with such a high fundamental risk involved.

Technically, only a push above 1.4600 may be a signal for bullish reversal but, for now, this looks more like a fantasy than a technical scenario.